The boxing world’s attention will be on Dallas, Texas this week as the highly anticipated Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz fight goes down on Saturday, August 5. Whether you’re tuning in to see Paul get beat up or whether he can defeat another well-known MMA name, the upcoming pay-per-view event should be an entertaining one.
As with moth major celebrity boxing matches, sportsbooks like Bovada have plenty of Paul vs Diaz betting opportunities worth checking out. Read on to see the latest odds for this massive boxing match, as well as the best bets to make ahead of this weekend.
Even though Diaz possesses more combat sports experience, it’s Paul who’s Bovada’s heavy favorite ahead of this weekend. The sportsbook lists the “Problem Child” as the -375 favorite with those odds carrying an implied win probability of 78.9%.
The truth is that Paul has looked more comfortable with each passing boxing match. Nobody took him too seriously when he opened his career with wins over fellow YouTuber AnEsonGib and former NBA player Nate Robinson, but that’s since changed.
Paul now holds victories over former MMA stars like Anderson Silva, Tyron Woodley, and Ben Askren. Each ex-fighter was past their prime at the time of the fights, however, those bouts still showed that Paul can handle opponents with more experience.
Nevertheless, this fight is Paul’s biggest test yet. The 26-year-old most recently suffered his first-ever loss back in February, losing to Tommy Fury by split decision. Now, it’s up to Paul to prove if he can bounce back from adversity.
On the flip side, this fight marks Diaz’s boxing debut. The former UFC Lightweight title challenger was never afraid to throw strikes in the octagon, having averaged 4.57 significant strikes per minute with 45% accuracy.
At the same time, Diaz was more known for his grappling during his MMA career. A total of 12 of his 21 all-time victories came via submission. In fact, Diaz hasn’t won by knockout since he punched Gray Maynard lights out back in November 2013.
It’ll also be interesting to see what shape Diaz is in. He’s only fought twice since the beginning of 2020, losing to Leon Edwards (via unanimous decision) before most recently TKO’ing Tony Ferguson at UFC 279.
With Paul being the lopsided favorite, the only real moneyline value comes from a Diaz upset. The good news is that ML betting isn’t the only option offered as Bovada has several Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz markets worth monitoring.
One thing that most boxing enthusiasts wonder is if there will be a finish in this fight. As it stands, Bovada favors that this fight won’t go the distance at -210 odds.
While that market combined with the moneyline implies that Paul will knock Diaz out, the former’s last two fights have gone the distance. Meanwhile, five of Diaz’s last eight MMA bouts reached the round limit.
Keeping the above in mind, Paul is favored to win by KO/TKO or DQ at -135 odds. He holds knockout wins in four of his seven previous boxing matches and now faces Diaz, who has only been KO’d twice throughout his 19-year combat sports career.
If Diaz is to pull off the upset, Bovada sees him doing it by knockout or DQ (+550). Still, it’s important to remember that he hasn’t knocked anyone out in 10 years while Paul has yet to have been finished in the squared circle.
After losing to Fury, I predict Paul to bounce back with a win over Diaz in Dallas. Love him or hate him, Paul has proven that he can hold his own in the boxing ring. Diaz’s MMA experience can’t be ignored, but there’s no guarantee that it’ll produce results — especially with how little he’s fought over the last two years.
I see Paul wearing out Diaz — who’s 12 years older — before winning by some form of decision (+325). Although a KO/TKO victory is favored, Diaz has done well at avoiding knockout losses. He’ll weather Paul’s storm for the most part, but the latter’s boxing experience and cardio will pay off in the long run.